USDCAD SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM TRADE IDEA 15-07-2025
USDCAD Fundamental backdrop
Fed vs BoC – The Fed remains on a tightening tilt while the BoC has signaled a more cautious pause; that asymmetry tends to support USD/CAD to the upside.
Oil – WTI is trading near $80/barrel, down from spring highs; weaker oil undermines the CAD.
Risk flows – With equity volatility picking up, USD safe-haven bids can outpace commodity currencies like CAD.
Overall, the fundamental bias is mildly bullish USD/CAD.
Technical structure
Timeframe | What’s happening | Key levels |
---|---|---|
Daily | Range bound since April, with higher lows off 1.3570. RSI ~56, carving out a series of higher troughs. Price now pressing the mid-range overhead near 1.3750–1.3780. | Support: 1.3570 (June low) |
Resistance: 1.4050 (Feb swing high), 1.3750–1.3780 (current congestion) | ||
4-Hour | Up-trending channel off June low, bouncing from the 50 EMA and 200 EMA confluence on June 30. Current pullback testing the rising trendline around 1.3665–1.3680. RSI ~60 and climbing. | Trendline / 50 EMA confluence: ~1.3665–1.3680 |
Near-term resistance: 1.3750 |
Optimal entry zones & TP : SL scenarios
A) Pullback Long into 4h trendline (lower-risk)
Entry: 1.3680 area (rising 4h trendline + 50 EMA)
Stop-Loss: 1.3650 (below the June 30 swing low) ⇒ 30 pips risk
Take-Profit: 1.3820 (daily mid-range resistance & March swing high) ⇒ 140 pips reward
RR: ~ 4.7 : 1
Rationale: You’re buying at intra-day support, in line with the daily higher-low. A fast move to 1.3820 would recapture the March swing, giving ample room for a big winner while risking only a shallow break of the 4h structure.
B) Breakout Entry above daily congestion (trend-following)
Trigger: Close above 1.3780 on 4h/Daily
Entry: 1.3790 on conviction close/retest
Stop-Loss: 1.3765 (25 pips, just under breakout level)
Take-Profit: 1.3950 (prior Feb/March supply) ⇒ 160 pips
RR: 6.4 : 1
Rationale: A clean breakout of the long-standing 1.3750–1.3780 zone would signal renewed USD strength. You give yourself a tight SL under the flip and aim for the next major supply cluster near 1.3950.
Risk management & next steps
Size accordingly so that 30 pips (setup A) or 25 pips (setup B) is within your max per-trade risk.
Watch oil and CAD-sensitive data (BoC speakers, Canadian jobs, U.S. CPI) for catalysts that could accelerate the move.
If neither zone holds (i.e. price cuts decisively below 1.3650), step aside until a fresh structure forms.
Bottom line:
The highest-probability, low-risk long is on a dip into 1.3665–1.3680 (RR ~4.7 : 1).
If you’re more trend-oriented, wait for a 1.3780+ breakout (RR ~6 : 1).
Either way, you’re aligning USD strength vs CAD weakness, clustering entries against clear technical pivots, and targeting a TP:SL well north of 3:1.