Gold broke decisively higher this week after spending months finding support around the $4,000 area, marking one of the clearest technical shifts in the market.

The key question now is whether this breakout is being confirmed across the broader macro landscape through weaker real yields, softer Dollar conditions, changing Fed expectations and stronger demand for defensive assets.

If those signals begin aligning, Gold’s move could represent more than a short-term breakout and instead point to a broader repricing in the global macro environment.

WHY: A sustained Gold breakout can signal changing expectations around real yields, monetary policy, inflation and global risk sentiment.

DESK: Gold-bullish; watching for confirmation from yields, Dollar and broader macro conditions

Optimism around a potential agreement over the Strait of Hormuz is building as negotiations continue, raising hopes that geopolitical risks around the key global oil shipping route could ease.

Any meaningful progress toward an agreement could reduce the geopolitical risk premium in Oil, improve broader risk sentiment and weigh on safe-haven demand.

WHY: Progress toward a Hormuz agreement could ease concerns over energy supply disruption and reduce geopolitical risk across global markets.

DESK: Oil-negative, Gold-negative, risk-positive

US stocks advanced, with the S&P 500 closing at a fresh record high after weaker-than-expected labour-market data reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening.

Lower Fed hike probabilities pushed Treasury yields and the US Dollar lower, while improving sentiment toward equities as investors priced in a less restrictive interest-rate outlook.

WHY: Softer employment conditions reduce pressure on the Fed to tighten further, supporting equity valuations while weighing on Treasury yields and the Dollar.

DESK: Equities-positive, USD-negative, yields-negative, Gold-positive

US inflation data will take centre stage next week as investors assess whether record-high equity markets can withstand renewed pressure from interest rates.

A hotter-than-expected inflation reading could quickly revive expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening, pushing Treasury yields and the US Dollar higher while creating pressure on equities.

A softer reading would likely reinforce expectations for a less aggressive Fed path and could provide further support to risk assets.

WHY: Inflation data could materially reshape Fed rate expectations, making it a key catalyst for Treasury yields, the US Dollar and record-high US equities.

DESK: Inflation-sensitive; hot CPI USD-positive and equity-negative

Latest CFTC positioning shows a more defensive stance across US equities, while speculators increased sizeable short exposure in key Treasury futures.

S&P 500 equity fund speculators increased net shorts by 32,299 contracts to 319,577, while fund managers trimmed their net long position to 937,107 contracts.

Treasury positioning remained heavily short:
• US 5-Year: Net short increased to 1,325,719 contracts
• US 10-Year: Net short increased to 979,243
• US 2-Year: Net short reduced to 1,004,228
• UltraBond: Net short reduced to 314,985
• US Treasury Bonds: Net short reduced to 176,272

FX positioning:
• EUR: -58,091 net short
• GBP: -57,814 net short
• JPY: -45,473 net short
• CHF: -32,822 net short

Bitcoin remains net long by 3,752 contracts.

WHY: Positioning points to cautious equity sentiment, persistent bearish exposure to US Treasuries and broad speculative shorts across major currencies against the US Dollar.

DESK: Risk-cautious, Treasury-bearish, broadly USD-supportive

The British Pound strengthened above the 1.3500 level against the US Dollar after disappointing US employment data triggered fresh pressure on the greenback.
The US economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs, prompting traders to reduce expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.
Lower Oil prices are also helping ease inflation concerns ahead of next week’s US CPI report, adding further pressure on US rate expectations.

The euro jumped sharply against the US dollar after a surprisingly weak US jobs report forced markets to scale back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.

Falling Treasury yields and a rapid repricing of the Fed outlook pressured the dollar, providing fresh momentum to EUR/USD.

The focus now shifts to whether upcoming US data confirms a broader slowdown in the labour market.

Euro zone government bond yields moved lower after the US economy unexpectedly shed jobs in July, reinforcing concerns over slowing labour-market momentum.
The weaker jobs data pushed US Treasury yields lower and reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening.
Lower rate expectations are providing support to the euro, global equities and gold as markets reassess the outlook for US monetary policy.

Traders have reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening in 2026 following the latest US jobs data.
US interest-rate futures now show lower odds of a Fed rate hike in September, while markets are pricing around 28 basis points of tightening by December, down from roughly 32 bps before the jobs report.
The shift suggests the latest labour-market data has slightly reduced expectations for a more aggressive Fed policy path.